You’ll remember that sometime back we had a lesson in polling and statistics. At that time I said,

In case you’ve been on an interstellar excursion, Mr. Bush’s approval ratings are in the mid-30s at the mo,’ and they’re not going to get any higher. When you lose the trust of the American electorate, you cannot get it back. Now, I’m not talking about personal trust: we all knew that Bubba was a player, but we loved him like a prodigal son. Look at him today; he’s a rock star rallying Dems like FDR.

But, when you lose the trust of the electorate that you can do the job; well, that’s a whole other story. The American electorate has decided that George Bush and his existential administration cannot do the job: they can’t cut the mustard. Why do I always refer to this administration as the ‘existential’ administration? Because they have been creating their own reality for past 5+ years. Unfortunately for them, reality has caught up with them.

So, it’s that time in the election cycle when I stick the ol’ neck out and make a few predictions. Now kiddies, please don’t try this at home. I have a degree in this crap. I’m a professional. I have a copy of Stata on my computer (you can’t do this shit with Excel) and government stats for that last 20 years. This is serious business folks. Looking at the numbers here is what I see:

Senate: 5 to 8 seat pick up for the Dems.
House: 27 to 34 seat pick up for Dems
Governors: 4 to 6 pick up for Dems

I haven’t been following the state House races in any depth greater than the Governors’ races, but there might be a tidal wave ready to hit there too. This year is about self-fulfilling prophecies. Back in 1994 Newt Gingrich made the by-elections national thus, defying the Tip O’Neill maxim: All politics is local. Usually voters think that Congress, in general, sucks. But, at the same time they feel that their representative is doing okay. Not this year: because of the Republicans it’s national. The electorate has figured out the Republicans have had all the marbles. This, and scandals, depresses Republican turnout.

At the same time, the Democrats are energised as they haven’t been for a long time. And don’t let anyone tell you that it was Bill alone who’s done this: all he did was hand them back their balls. Democratic voters were angry already.

While I’m at it here’s another prediction: the Tigers in 6. This is based on the fact that baseball is the ultimate statistician’s game. However, I don’t pretend to be as into those stats as political ones. So, don’t put any pesos on that one, okay?

Class dismissed.

Please give what you can to Médecins sans Frontières (Doctors without Borders).

And, of course